Saturday, November 10, 2018

美国的选举人票制度



回忆2016年大选特朗普赢得美国总统。有人认为:“是不太合理的选举人制度帮了川普。” 此话说明他根本不了解选举人制度。
说实话以前我也没搞懂美国开国先哲订的这选举人制度是合理在哪里,如何运作?
这篇文章理论上写清楚了,虽然缺少一点美国历史背景,当时这制度先哲在如何原因下制定出来。但让我能理解一些。特放这里。

对中期选举结果的分析,这样的分析比较能说服我。
这次中期选举,共和党失去众议院有两大原因。一,那些激进年轻人和少数族裔的民主党选民大出动,他们根本不买川普优秀政绩的账,以党派为重力挺民主党。二,众议院中有四十个共和党议员宣布不再连任。此外,民主党竞选参议院虽输,其实却是战绩不小。因为,参议院这次只有35个席位需要改选,其中民主党赢了22席,而共和党仅赢了13席。可见,共和党这次能够赢得参议院是得益于起跑线的不同,共和党起跑于原有的42席,而民主党仅起跑于原有的23席。
年轻人和少数族裔仍将是民主党的强大票仓。有人在推特中担忧地写到:“我判断随着十年后,大量不支持美国价值的中国移民后代投票,美国会堕落为社会主义国家,和变性人以及毒品天堂!”这次中期选举使我更看清,左派思潮仍旧代代不息。
从民主党和共和党的蓝红胜负的分布图看,我们可以看出,蓝色民主党都集中在人口众多密集的东西两岸,红色共和党遍布在大片的中西部。为此,我再次赞叹美国建国先贤们超前的真知卓见,他们预见到,政客可能会因掌控了人口密集地区的选票,掌握了精英大众和媒体而操控选举,而无视真正的民众,于是,建国先贤们设计了“选举人票”制。这不禁令人深思并提问,美国的核心价值是在人群密集的左派精英群体中,还是在人员稀疏的铜锈区的劳动大众中?

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对于大国美国而言, 选举人票制度比单纯的一人一票制度要合理得多
作者:刘晓东---2016
选举人制度的唯一缺点是,它会发生优胜者票数比失败者少的情况,这种情况在历史上发生过四次,加上川普这次是五次,属很少发生的情况。但与一人一票相比,选举人制度更加合理,它能够反映大多数小地区的民意。这是我们美国先贤政治智慧的过人之处。因为,美国是个有五十个州的大国,如果采用一人一票制度,像希拉里这样投机的老油条政客就会走捷径只面向于大城市,轻而易举地赢得选举,这次竞选她就是这么做的。大城市人口多,精英多,只要争取到他们,就争取到了大多数。这种表面的大多数真的代表民意吗?那些在象牙塔里的经济砖家学者们真的代表民意吗?非也。
选举人制度的缺点只有一个,不能反映一人一票,但优点却有数个。而一人一票制度的优点却只有它本身这一个。从下面所列的优缺点,我们就可以从中看出孰优孰劣,孰合理孰不合理。
选举人票制度优点:
第一,保护小州的利益。美国先辈对制度的设计,重点是强调地方分权,而不是中央集权,其宪政理念是把权力下放到各州,并保证大州小州在联邦层次上权利平等。”选举人制度“ 符合一人一票、多数当选的民主原则,只不过不是以全国人数为”单位”,而是以”州”为选举单位。这个多数,不是全国范围的”多数”,而是每一个州的选民多数,这样更能保护小州的权益。这种制度迫使总统候选人不能只看重几个大州,而是看重每一个州,在每一个州获得多数选票。
第二,可以通过赢者通吃的方式,一次到位地产生总统,而不会像其它国家那样,第一轮总统选票没过半,再第二轮选举。因为,经验告诉我们,只要有第二轮选举,就容易有政治分肥和交易,结果会扭曲选民意向,被迫把选票投给其它候选人。
第三,”选举人制度” 可以立即产生总统,而避免全国人头计算选票,清点到每一个村镇的每一张选票,使总统长时间无法产生。 第四,使政府不产生众多小党,使宪政制度比较稳定。由于选举人制度是以”州”为计票单位,而且又是实行”赢者通吃”的游戏规则,赢者囊括所有选票,因此,使得票第二多、第三多的候选人毫无所获。每个州的选举结果只有一个赢家,没有第二、第三,这样就不会产生小党,更无法产生政党比例制的多党制。美国实行”选举人制度”,就使小党没有多大存活空间,两大政党轮流执政,不存在多个小党联合起来投不信任票而结束内阁的现象。
2016年选举过程,美国的媒体对川普一直是零支持,没有一个公开支持者,连共和党的Fox都不待见川普,他最后好不容易争取到爱荷华太阳报的支持(我记不太清报名)。而川普是个非常务实和执着的商人,用他自己的话是从不认输。他看到这种情况,便去推特自己推,去脸书自己写,招来主流媒体的更大嘲笑。可那些精英却不知道,川普这个举动感动了多少美国底层老百姓。同时,脸书团队在脸书上统计发现,拥护川普的人气颇高,脸书总裁小札便公开支持川普了。
现在,“自媒体”的出现,使主流媒体再也不能误导民众了。

Thursday, November 8, 2018

我觉秋兴逸, 谁云秋兴悲?









秋天有太多的景,秋天更有太多的诗。

中国古诗对秋天的感叹不外是离别,哀叹,悲切,失意,怀才不遇,对景抒怀。

李白的这首送别诗,以借秋景解带抒情,可谓,相失各万里, 茫然空尔思。


李白

我觉秋兴逸, 谁云秋兴悲?
山将落日去, 水与睛空宜。
鲁酒白玉壶, 送行驻金羁。
歇鞍憩古木, 解带挂横枝。
歌鼓川上亭, 曲度神飙吹。
云归碧海夕, 雁没青天时。
相失各万里, 茫然空尔思。

这是一首送别诗。宴送的杜补阙、范侍御均为李白友人。

诗一开头紧扣题中“秋日”,抒发时令感受。自宋玉《九辩》中以“悲哉秋之为气也”句开篇,后来的文人墨客都是一片悲秋之声,李白却偏说“我觉秋兴逸”,格调高昂,不同凡响。“我觉”、“谁云”都带有强烈的主观抒情色彩,富有李白的艺术个性;两名对照鲜明,反衬出诗人的豪情逸致。一、二句定下基调,别宴的帷幕便徐徐拉开。








Tuesday, November 6, 2018

今天是选举日




11月6日是美国中期选举日,我按美国建国先贤的意愿投了我的一票。
 the very essence of the nation was to be a “republic” for the deliberate purpose of denying the people any direct right to actually rule. 


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We live in a world of false hopes. The United States is by NO MEANS a democracy. The perpetual corruption of the American political system is by design. The United States was founded as a republic, NOT a democracy. As Alexander Hamilton and James Madison made clear in the Federalist Papers, that the very essence of the nation was to be a “republic” for the deliberate purpose of denying the people any direct right to actually rule. Hamilton and Madison did not trust the people. Just read the Federalist Papers #63 written by Madison. He emphasized:

In the most pure democracies of Greece, many of the executive functions were performed, not by the people themselves, but by officers elected by the people, and REPRESENTING the people in their EXECUTIVE capacity.

Prior to the reform of Solon, Athens was governed by nine Archons, annually ELECTED BY THE PEOPLE AT LARGE. The degree of power delegated to them seems to be left in great obscurity. Subsequent to that period, we find an assembly, first of four, and afterwards of six hundred members, annually ELECTED BY THE PEOPLE; and PARTIALLY representing them in their LEGISLATIVE capacity, since they were not only associated with the people in the function of making laws, but had the exclusive right of originating legislative propositions to the people. The senate of Carthage, also, whatever might be its power, or the duration of its appointment, appears to have been ELECTIVE by the suffrages of the people. Similar instances might be traced in most, if not all the popular governments of antiquity.

Lastly, in Sparta we meet with the Ephori, and in Rome with the Tribunes; two bodies, small indeed in numbers, but annually ELECTED BY THE WHOLE BODY OF THE PEOPLE, and considered as the REPRESENTATIVES of the people, almost in their PLENIPOTENTIARY capacity. The Cosmi of Crete were also annually ELECTED BY THE PEOPLE, and have been considered by some authors as an institution analogous to those of Sparta and Rome, with this difference only, that in the election of that representative body the right of suffrage was communicated to a part only of the people.

From these facts, to which many others might be added, it is clear that the principle of representation was neither unknown to the ancients nor wholly overlooked in their political constitutions. The true distinction between these and the American governments, lies IN THE TOTAL EXCLUSION OF THE PEOPLE, IN THEIR COLLECTIVE CAPACITY, from any share in the LATTER, and not in the TOTAL EXCLUSION OF THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE PEOPLE from the administration of the FORMER. The distinction, however, thus qualified, must be admitted to leave a most advantageous superiority in favor of the United States. But to insure to this advantage its full effect, we must be careful not to separate it from the other advantage, of an extensive territory. For it cannot be believed, that any form of representative government could have succeeded within the narrow limits occupied by the democracies of Greece.

(FEDERALIST No. 63. The Senate Continued For the Independent Journal. Saturday, March 1, 1788) MADISON

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